Under Review

Circle November 15 on your NHL calendar

2011-11-14T11:14:00.001-08:00

On Tuesday evening, November 15, the New York Islanders will become the 30th and last NHL team to have played 15 games so far. And although the NHL’s long season seems to have barely begun,mid-November and the 15 game mark (the average team will have played 17 games**) has proved to be a surprisingly accurate predictor* of which teams will make the playoffs and which teams will not.
In the six post-lockout seasons, at the 15 game mark:

78% (77 of 96) of the teams in the top 8 in each conference have made the playoffs. Every Stanley Cup winner has been in the top 8 at this point.

85 % of the teams in the top 4 have made the playoffs. Five of six Stanley Cup winners have been in the top 4 (the Bruins were 6th in the Eastern Conference last season at 15 games).

Just 17% (8 of 48) of the teams in the bottom 4 have made the playoffs even though the average difference between 8th place and 12th has only been three points at the 15 game mark.

Although they are generated by an infinitely more complex system (millions of simulated games), the odds posted at sportsclubstats.com parallel and confirm the historical data :heading into play on Nov. 15, they show the Blackhawks (1st in the Western Conference) with an 85% playoff chance and the Avs (12th) with a 23.7% chance.

    The NHL will have completed a mere 21% of the 2011-12 season as of November 15 and to me it’s somewhat amazing that, if this season follows the historical pattern, the parameters of the final standings have already been outlined for us if not etched in stone.
    One of the reasons is certainly that the league’s vaunted competitive balance is actually an illusion. Over the past six seasons, five teams have dominated play in 5 of the 6 divisions, winning 22 of the 30 possible divisional titles. Compare that with the notoriously unbalanced NBA where the top 5 teams have won 17 of 30 possible division titles during the same time period.
    The picture becomes somewhat clearer when you add the perennial also rans (Columbus, St. Louis, Toronto, Florida, the Islanders, and Atlanta/WPG) who as a group managed to make only four playoff appearances in the last six years.
    The “loser point” instituted to promote competitive balance may also play a part here since it tends to keep losing streaks from turning into pointless streaks. But the jury is still out on that one:in a previous study, I found that the “loser point” slightly favored pursuing teams during the last quarter of the season.

* For this post, I used the standings as they regularly are published, ie, total points with ties broken by # of wins, then winning pct. With teams having played an unequal # of games, it might seem that using team standings pts per game would be more appropriate but the differences are actually slight, plus/minus 2 to 3 %.
**Using 10 game intervals, the next highest pct. 84% occurs at the 55 game mark, approx. Feb 15.

CAN Will Atlanta Ever Support Teams in 4 Pro Sports?

2011-05-26T08:23:00.000-07:00

Atlanta, despite being staggered by the worst economic downturn of our lifetime, is still an economic powerhouse.Metro area GDP ranks 10th among US cities and 17th among all the cities of the world. If Atlanta was a country, its GDP would rank it alongside that of Finland, a country which, incidentally, supports 14 professional ice hockey teams and arena seating capacity for hockey of over 100,000.
Despite its economic prominence, the Atlanta area sports economy has underperformed for many years. That underperformance does not begin or end with the Atlanta Thrashers. Combined revenues of the four professional sports teams and two major college programs in the area show that the Atlanta sports economy lags behind its peers (nine other US metro areas) by about 23%. Put another way, if the Atlanta sports economy produced per household revenues of, dare I say it, the Phoenix area, total revenues would increase by about $128 million dollars per year.

The four Atlanta professional sports teams rank last among the ten comparable cities in ticket revenues per household.While the Thrashers' plight is well known, the Falcons rank 6th in gate receipts and the Braves rank 7th among the 10 MLB teams.
College sports take 22% of the local sports dollars, the highest percentage of any of the ten cities included. But that figure is probably understated since significant sports dollars from the Atlanta area also flow to SEC and ACC football programs in the neighboring states of Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Florida.
UGA football has greater total revenues than the Atlanta Thrashers.
Other metro areas, however, also have college programs that produce strong revenues and professional sports coexist nicely. No one thinks of the SF Bay Area as a college sports mecca but the combined revenues of Cal and Stanford are greater than those of UGA and GTech. And the Bay Area supports 5 professional sports teams with ticket revenues more than double those generated in Atlanta.
The New York Yankees have gate receipts that are more than double those of all four Atlanta teams combined.
Surprisingly, the Denver area (half the size of Atlanta) produces the highest revenues for sports on a per household basis .Boston is second.
Maybe it's the food: Atlantans spend more of their food and drink dollars in restaurants than folks in any other US metro area.
Sorry, we've already got religion: Sociologists have compared sports fandom to religion in that it bonds people together. Georgia ranks among the top 10 US states in church attendance. Denver and Boston which produce the highest revenues per household for sports, are in states with very low church attendance (massachusetts is last). And Canada, where hockey is a religion, ranks even lower.
Lack of familiarity with hockey has often been cited as one reason for the Thrashers' failure. But Georgians are plenty familiar with tennis-USTA Southern Section, based in Norcross, has 25% of all registered tennis players in the US- and professional tennis went missing from the Atlanta sports scene in 2001 due to lack of support and was gone for nine years until last year's revival of the Atlanta Tennis Championships.
(Figures below represent reported revenues for 2 major college programs in each area (from U.S. Dept of Education) and estimated revenues for professional teams (from Forbes). They do not include revenues from national tv contracts for either pro or college teams and thus are "local revenues". Household size is from US Census.)

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Anson Carter Rumored As Part of Possible Thrashers Ownership

2011-02-27T08:21:00.000-08:00

Rumors have ex-Bruin Dancin’ Anson Carter, now living in Atlanta, as part of a group interested in buying the Thrashers. Long interested in a career in the music industry, Carter, 36, wrapped up his hockey days with Lugano (Switzerland) in 2007-08 - from Kevin Paul Dupont, Boston Globe hockey writer's Sunday column

Here is some info about Carter's life after hockey from a Michigan State site:

"Carter resides in Atlanta with his wife Erika, two daughters Mikayla and Malia, along with Zeus their great dane. He is the founder of Big Up Entertainment, and he’s also the Chairman/ Co-Founder of an apparel company called SOMB. SOMB stands for “shirt off my back” (www.sombstyle.com). SOMB is a premium, eco-friendly apparel line built on a one for one model. SOMB donates a full school uniform to a child in Africa every time it sells an item of clothing."

Carter's partners in SOMB (which is based in LA) are listed as Anders Bard, Will Bennett, and James Williams, "a movie producer, a Wharton Business School grad and an investment banker"

Bard's film credits include "I Love You Man" (co-producer) and "Along Came Polly" (starred Ben Stiller and Jennifer Anniston). I have no idea if Bard (or Williams or Bennett) are involved in this rumored group but if you look at Bard's facebook page, the picture he's chosen to represent him shows him at an ice rink, striking a pose next to a youth hockey player (his son?). Bard grew up in Montreal, worked for Jerry Bruckheimer and has played in Bruckheimer's legendary (?) Hollywood hockey games.

Anson Carter was a personable and popular player everywhere he played. Having a personable minority group member as part of an ownership team would score big with the NHL powers that be and in theory at least would have a positive impact in Atlanta.

Trader Rick-A History of Rick Dudley's Trades

2010-04-14T13:39:00.000-07:00

Data Visualizations for NHL Trophy Buzz

2010-01-26T09:59:00.000-08:00

Calder Trophy Jan 25

Vezina Trophy Jan 25

Hart Trophy Jan 25

Norris Trophy Jan 25

Kovalchuk Trade Rumors

2010-01-25T11:00:00.000-08:00

Comparing the Jan 18 data on Kovalchuk trade rumors with the most recent data (Jan 25), focus has shifted off the Boston Bruins as a destination, probably because of the ripple effect of a Boston Globe column dampening speculation.

Kovalchuk Rumors Jan 25

Kovalchuk Rumors Jan 18

All Time Olympic Scoring leaders

2009-12-29T13:06:00.000-08:00

NHL Players in the Olympics, By Year and Team

2009-11-21T08:35:00.001-08:00

Is there an Olympic hangover?

2009-11-21T07:13:00.000-08:00

Moving Up in the Draft

2009-06-23T09:28:00.000-07:00

Are you baffled by some of the trades GMS make on draft day? I am, so here's a stab at trying to understand what's going on.
The way I see it trades involving draft picks only have two components. The first is economic, a cost in Optimal or Probable salary savings (OPS and PPS). The second is an exchange of probabilities. The chart below lists some of the trades that took place on Draft Day in 2008 and 2007. Most are two for one exchanges in which the team in Column 1 acquired the right to move up x positions in the draft (column 3 in the chart). Column 4 "Probability Cost 1" shows the % of probability the team gave up. It's the difference between the probability of the pick acquired and the probability that one of the picks surrendered will make it to the NHL. Column 5 "Probability Cost 2" shows the probability that 2 of those surrendered will make it: there is such a miniscule probability that 3 will make (some trades were 3 for 1) that it doesn't deserve its' own column. Some observations after the grid:

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1. What the hey, there is some consistency here, at least if you throw out Doug Wilson's snaky, unpredictable transactions. For moving up an average 3.3 draft positions on Round 1, GMs paid 9% probability cost and $707k in PPS. If I'm a GM at Friday's draft, that's my minimum price. 2. Doug Wilson loves this shit. Or else he caught the bug from Dean Lombardi who used to occupy his chair. And he's pretty good at it: Devin Setoguchi, Joe Pavelski, Matt Carle, Steve Bernier, Lukas Kaspar, Thomas Greiss are all players acquired by moving up or down who have played at least one game for the Sharks since 2003.

NHL General Managers:Reports and Scorecard

2009-06-11T08:01:00.000-07:00

Click on the GM's name to open the full report at Scribd, the document sharing website. Reports are in PDF format for viewing and download:toggle full screen for best view.Due to its popularity, the Brian Burke report may be seen its entirety by scrolling down this site.

Brian Burke Peter Chiarelli Bob Gainey Ken Holland Paul Holmgren Scott Howson Lou Lamoriello Dean Lombardi Don Maloney George McPhee Bryan Murray Larry Pleau David Poile Jim Rutherford Glen Sather Ray Shero Garth Snow Darryl Sutter Dale Tallon Darcy Regier Don Waddell Doug Wilson

Snow

2009-06-10T11:48:00.000-07:00

Brian Burke

2009-05-14T06:25:00.000-07:00

Brian Burke

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Other Research

The Race to the Bottom

2009-03-15T15:55:00.001-07:00

Most Meaningful Meaningless Game of the Week:
No minus four point games but the Avs get to resume their Death March with 2 games versus the Ducks and 1 with the Canucks

European Ice Hockey Attendance

2009-03-13T13:28:00.000-07:00

Four Point Games and the Playoff Race

2009-03-10T09:19:00.001-07:00

Here's a list of "four point" games among the conference rivals vying for playoff spots. The list excludes conference games against the top three teams in each conference and Chicago in the Western Conference. This list will be updated with records in four point games from Mar 5 on.

Pittsburgh (Home=1 Away=3 W-2 L-1), Florida (Home=1 Away=3 W-0 L-2 Otl-2), New York (Home=2 Away=3 W-3 L-2),Carolina (Home=3 W-2 L-0), Buffalo (Home=1 Away=2 W-1 L-3), Philadelphia (Home=3 Away=1 W-4 L-1), Montreal (Home=4 Away=2 Otl-1), Columbus (Home=3 Away=3 W-0 L-1), Nashville(Home=1 Away=2 W-1 L-0 Otl-1), Dallas (Home=3 Away=2 W-2 L-2), Anaheim (Home=1Away=3 W-2 L-2), Minnesota (Home=1 Away=1 W-2 L-1 Otl-1), St Louis (Home=3 Away=2 W-2 L-1 Otl-1), Vancouver (Home=1 Away=4 W-2 Otl-1) Edmonton (H=3 A-1 W=1 L+1)

Schedule of 4 Point Games for March
March 24 Anaheim at Nashville, Vancouver at Dallas March 25 Florida at Buffalo March 26 Florida at Philadelphia, Vancouver at St. Louis March 27 Edmonton at Anaheim March 28 NY Rangers at Pittsburgh, Buffalo at Montreal, Columbus at St. Louis, March 29 St. Louis at Columbus, Minnesota at Edmonton March 31 Nashville at Columbus, Vancouver at Minnesota, Anaheim at Edmonton

THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM

2009-03-08T15:23:00.001-07:00

Weekend Results: Revolt of the Downtrodden and the Bolts take over 29th Place

The Islanders picked up four points, beating the Devils and Phoenix Coyotes. Tampa Bay moved squarely into the race with a miserable outing against Carolina. The Thrashers had two home wins against Canadian teams to fall (climb) to 28th.

Most Meaningful Meaningless GameThis Week: Atl @ Col March 10
What's At Stake: The team finishing 30th( last) receives a 48.2 % chance to obtain the first draft pick in the NHL Entry Draft and a 100% chance of picking second if they fail to pick first. The 29th place finisher has an 18.8% chance of picking first and a 42% chance of picking second. The 28th place finisher receives only a 14.4% chance of drafting first. Given that the list of top prospects has been dominated by the two-headed monster Tavares/Hedman for more than a year, obtaining one of the top two picks has taken on added significance this year (has anybody ever heard of Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi, ranked third by the ISS?). Also at stake is the mythical (because, frankly, it doesn't exist) Kansas City Scouts Memorial Trophy*, named after the franchise with the worst winning percentage in NHL history.
* This trophy was formerly named the "Top of the Bottom Trophy". The name was changed by the NHL because Gary Bettman was squeamish about discussing the anatomical significance of the trophy's name with his young daughter.
Tavares/Hedman Watch:John Tavares scored a hat trick on Sunday to become the OHL's all-time leading scorer with 215 goals. Victor Hedman's season is over as Modo failed to qualify for the playoffs. But Hedman is already garnering post-season honors with one Swedish publication saying he was an "easy choice" for Rookie of the Year and predicting an imminent departure for the NHL.
The Little Three
Atlanta Thrashers: Kari Lehtonen awoke from a recurring trade deadline nightmare which featured Al Strachan screaming "Lehtonen to the Flyers" over and over. Relieved of the possible pressure to perform up to expectations for a playoff contender, Kari turned in two outstanding efforts. Time to start Johan Hedburg. To make matters worse (better) the Thrashers defense showed signs of improvement despite trading Nic Havelid. Will Don Waddell regret winning 3 of the 4 meetings with the Isles earlier in the season?

New York Islanders: Despite the good (bad) news about a possible season ending injury to Trent Hunter, the Isles third leading scorer, and the trade of Bill Guerin, the Isles showed signs of awakening from their slumber and have been 5-4-1 in the last 10 games. A six game road trip starting this week should fix that.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Traded "Wrecking Ball" Mark Recchi, their best defenseman Steve Emiger, and spiritual advisor Olaf Kolzig. Combine that with Mike Smith's walkabout and the results were the worst record in the NHL over the last ten games. The Bolts control their own ill-fate with games remaining with the NYI and Thrashers(2). I have a hunch that Mike McKenna will start those games.

What's Walt Worth? (Part III)

2009-02-03T12:27:00.000-08:00

Kuba, OTT HIGH 1st Round DC LOW 2nd + 4th Round DCs
Havelid, ATL, O'Donnell, LA HIGH 2nd + 4th Round DCs LOW Roster Player
Zanon, NSH HIGH Roster Player LOW 3rd Round DC
Malik, TB HIGH 3rd Round DC LOW 4th Round DC
Gauthier, LA, Kostinen, NSH HIGH 4th Round DC LOW 5th Round DC

Mathieu Schneider is a wild card among this group. Based on his reputation and skill-set (at least the skills he used to have), he should have a market value similar to that of Brad Stuart last year: two DCs, 2nd and 4th. But his play this year has been truly horrible and he could fall to a 3rd or 4th round pick. Jay Bouwmeester is not on the list because I don't expect him to be moved: if that happens, he should command a Brian Campbell-like market value, a roster player and first round DC.

What's Walt Worth? (Part II)

2009-02-03T12:09:00.002-08:00

(Keith "Walt" Tkachuk has been traded twice at or around the trade deadline, once as rental player, and may be on the trade block once again this year. "Walt" has become a kind of a poster boy for deadline deals : this series of posts has been named in his honor. )

UFA Forwards Projected Market Value
Antropov,TOR., Tkachuk, STL High Roster Player,DC(1st rd) Low Roster Player, Prospect

Weight,NYI, Moore, TOR High Roster Player, DC (2nd rd) Low Prospect, DC (2nd rd)

Recchi, TB,Comrie,NYI, Reasoner, ATL High Prospect, DC (2nd rd) Low Roster Player

Neil, OTT,Bonk,NSH High Roster Player Low DC(2nd rd)

Calder, LA, Perrin, ATL High Roster Player Low DC(2nd rd)

Fiddler, NSH, McAmmond, OTT High DC (2nd rd) Low DC(4th rd)

Hinote, STL, Jackman NYI High DC (4th rd) Low DC (6th rd)

Andy McDonald is not on the list because of injury problems. If he recovers before March 4 and shows signs of regaining his past form, he would go to the top of the list. Steve Sullivan is also not included: he's only scored two points since returning from a long term injury and it seems to me that Nashville would get little for him except a heap of bad publicity.

What's Walt Worth?

2009-01-31T13:51:00.000-08:00

(Keith "Walt" Tkachuk has been traded twice at or around the trade deadline, once as rental player, and may be on the trade block once again this year. "Walt" has become a kind of a poster boy for deadline deals : this series of posts has been named in his honor. )

This summary includes trades where the rental player was the only player acquired (72% of total trades): multiplayer trades have several moving parts and I'll try to untangle those trades at a later date.

TOI “Rental” Players 2006-8 Defensemen

6-10 min 3 trades Prospect (4th rd) + DC (7th rd)/ DC (4th rd)/ DC (7th rd)
11-15 min 5 trades DC (4th rd)/DC (4th rd)/DC(5th rd)/Prospect (2nd rd)/Roster player (F)
16-20 min 5 trades DC(2nd rd)/DC (3rd rd)/Roster player (F)/Two Roster players (F (F+D)/DC (3rd rd)
21-24 min 7 trades Roster player( F) + DC (1st rd)/Two DC (2nd, 4th rd)/Roster player(F)/ DC (2nd, 4th rd)/DC (1st rd)/Roster player( F) + DC (1st rd)/Gorges, DC(1st rd)

TOI “Rental” Players 2006-8 Forwards
7-12 min 7 trades DC(2nd rd)/DC (4th rd)/Roster player (F)/DC (5th rd)/Roster player(F)/DC (6th rd)/DC (6th rd)
13-16 min 8 trades DC (3rd rd)/Prospect (2nd rd)/DC (2nd rd)/DC (7th rd)/Prospect (7th rd),DC(2nd rd)/Prospect (2nd rd),DC (2nd rd)/Roster Player (F), Prospect (8th rd),DC(2nd rd)/Roster Player (F)
17-19 min 5 trades Roster Player (F), Prospect (1st rd), DC(2nd rd)/Roster Player (F-UFA), DC (1st,2nd,3rd rd)/Roster Player (F), Prospect (2nd rd), DC (1st rd)/DC (2nd rd)/Roster Player (F)
20-22 min 2 trades Smyth was traded for Roster Player( Nilsson ), Prospect(O'Marra), DC (1st rd)/Forsberg was traded for Roster Player (Upshall), Prospect (Parent), DC (1st, 3rd rd)

Goalies: Huet for DC (2nd rd),Roloson for DC(1st,3rd rd), Aebischer was traded for Theodore (then on IR), Aubin for DC (7th rd).

DEADLINE DAY OR GROUNDHOG DAY?

2009-01-27T15:50:00.000-08:00

The NHL trade deadline is a month away but for Mathieu Schneider, Keith Tkachuk, and Doug Weight, Deadline Day may feel a lot like Groundhog Day (the Bill Murray film). All of these players have been traded at least once before on Deadline Day and all of them have been prominently mentioned on lists of potential "rental players" likely to be traded on March 4.

Since 2005 and the new CBA, rental players have swelled the ranks of players traded on Deadline Day: in the past three seasons, 65 players (37 forwards, 23 defensemen, 5 goalies) classified as rental players have been traded on or near the trade deadline. Compare with this with a total of 28 rental players changing hands in the three seasons prior to the new CBA. And the vast majority of these players have ended up being purely "rentals" since only 10 of the 65 have later signed with the acquiring team,

As Schneider, Weight, and Tkachuk and about fifteen to twenty others (usually well-traveled veteran players) contemplate a month or more of living out of suitcases in a strange city, fans of the acquiring teams will be asking whether their team's new acquisition will help solidify an established playoff position or spark a playoff push.

The answer, based on recent history, is a qualified yes: out of 33 team seasons in the last three years, teams acquiring rental players succeeded in making the playoffs 30 times. Of course, almost every contending team makes some sort of deal around Deadline Day, some rental players have little or no impact on the fortunes of the acquiring team,and there's even some evidence that rental players underperform statistically (see below). Still, it's striking that out of 68 teams (over the past three years) that were at least nominally in contention (within 6 points of a playoff spot) on Deadline Day, only 15 of the 35 that did not acquire rental players actually made the playoffs. It may be that teams acquiring rental players are simply better positioned in the playoff race and therefore optimistic enough to trade some part of their future for a short term gain.

18 of the 33 teams acquiring rental players actually improved their winning percentage after a Deadline Day acquisition, a number that is made more impressive by the fact that most of these teams were already winning consistently prior to the trade deadline.

13 of the 33 teams improved their playoff position after acquiring a rental player, 3 of these teams were not in the top 8 in their conference at the trade deadline. 9 teams slipped with 3 acquiring teams falling out of the playoff race.

Of course,there is an "on the other hand": 15 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs survived the first round, no more and no less than would be expected.

After any big purchase, buyer's remorse may set in and fans of acquiring teams may wonder if they gave up too much of the team's future for a short term rental. A total of 49 players changed hands in transactions for rental players: 29 of those players have played in the NHL this season.

46 draft choices changed hands: the jury is still out on most of them, of course, but Milan Lucic, David Perron, Colton Gillies, Wayne Simmonds, Patrick Berglund, and Mikael Backlund were among the players selected by teams involved in trading rental players.

Statistics on how well the rental players performed for their new teams are underwhelming. Keep in mind, though, its a small sample (less than 25% of a full season), there are likely to be issues of adjustment to a new team and system, and players often saw their roles change on their new team.

Forwards PPG 35% increased +/- 62% increased TOI 38% increased
Defensemen PPG 26% increased +/- 52% increased TOI 57% increased

Among the goaltenders traded as rental players, the two starting goalies (Roloson, Huet) made major contributions and saw their statistics improve dramatically. The other three goalies saw little action.

NHL Revenues:Size DOES Matter

2008-10-30T08:12:00.000-07:00

Back in May, the Toronto Star published figures which it said showed the average ticket revenue per game for NHL teams. Combining that information with the recently published Forbes list, I thought it would interesting to see which teams generated the most revenue from non-ticket sales sources (tv contracts, corporate sponsorships, marketing etc). Two conclusions: large US cities, even those with mediocre on-ice results and attendance like L.A. and Chicago, can still generate well above average non-ticket revenues, simply because of the sheer mass of advertising and corporate dollars available in those metro areas. The New York metro area generates $173 million between the three teams. A second team in Toronto would only have to generate non-ticket revenues equal to the Islanders ($40 mil)to be in the top ten in total revenues for the entire league. Conversely, the smaller Canadian cities, Calgary and Edmonton, struggle to produce non-ticket revenues. And one of the smallest US metro areas, Columbus, is in dire straits, producing more than a third less non-ticket revenues than the average franchise even before this year's anticipated drop in sponsorship income.
The list is below: if the details of revenue sharing (how much teams paid out and how much other teams received) were known the bottom of the list would surely change. Florida is an anomaly here, even if you assume they received revenue sharing funds, they still generated about as much in non-ticket revenue as Colorado or Minnesota. Again, the sheer size of the corporate market may be a factor in the Panthers' numbers.
1. Toronto $78 mil 2. NYR $75 mil 3. LA $63 mil 4. Boston $60 mil 5. NJ $58 mil 6. Det $56 mil 7. Montreal $56 mil 8. Chicago $55 mil 9. Dallas $55 mil 10. Tampa $54 mil 11. Florida $52 mil 12. Phil $51 mil 13. Anaheim $48 mil 14. Phx $48 mil 15. Wash $48 mil 16. STL $47 mil 17. Van $47 mil 18. ATL $46 mil 19. Car $45 mil 20. Buff $44 mil 21. Pitt $44 mil 22. Col $43 mil 23. Minn $43 mil 24. Nash $42 mil 25. Ott $42 mil 26. NYI $40 mil 27. CGY $37 mil 28. SJS $37 mil 29. CBJ $36 mil 30. Edm $33 mil

KHL Salaries

2008-10-03T18:02:00.000-07:00

1. Avangard $30.8 mil 2. Ak Bars $23.7 mi 3. Atlant $20.9 mil 4. Salavat Yulajev $20.6 mil 5. SKA $19.6 mil 6 .Lokomotiv $19.6 mil 7 .Metalurg Mg. $18.9 8. Dynamo Moscow $17.8 mil 9. Serverstal $16.3 mil 10. CSKA $14.5 mil 11. Lada $13.4 mil 12. Torpedo $12.8 mil. 13. Barys $12.1 mil 14. Spartak $9.4 mil 15. Sibirj $8.2 mil 16. Metalurg Nk. $8.2 mil 17. Neftekhimik $8.0 mil 18. Vitjaz $8.0 mil 19 .Traktor $7.9 mil 20. MVD $7.3 mil 21. Amur $7.1 mil 22. Dinamo Rīga $5.8 mil 23. Dynamo Minsk $4.5 mil 24. Khimik $4.3 mil
Division leaders are in bold. Teams in italics are in last place in their division.

Salary figures are from the KHL website (http://khl.ru/news/2008/10/3/4320.html-an earlier news release (Oct 1, 2008) did not include bonuses or salaries for key players ). Currency conversion was done on 10/04/08 at the London Interbank Rate (25.9 rubles to one US dollar).
The league median is $12,5 million per team,which is a little above the minimum announced last June. The total league payroll is about $328 million. About all I can say about a league in which the highest payroll is more than seven times (700%) the lowest is good luck ever achieving parity.

2008-06-29T16:24:00.000-07:00

DOES YOUR TEAM NEED IMPROVEMENT? FIRE THE COACH,
LEARN HOW TO PLAY DEFENSE,
AND, BY THE WAY, YOU MIGHT HIRE A NEW BACKUP GOALIE

I looked at 20 seasons, choosing the two teams from each season that improved the most in standings points: the median improvement was 24 points. DEFENSE: Thirty of the forty teams improved their GA totals significantly. The median improvement was 18.5 %, or somewhere north of forty-five fewer goals allowed . Improvements in offense were less dramatic at 9.5 %. COACHES: Not surprising that there were so many coaching changes, the 60% (24 of 30) dovetails nicely with the fact that 65% of these teams had declined in the standings during the previous season. Is there a "Bruce Boudreau effect" at work here? ROSTER TURNOVER: I tried to identify a basic 20 man roster and I don't think I'm far off. Obviously there were more roster movements (injury call-ups, rookie tryouts, veterans acquired in trade at the end of the season) but the median is 6 players out of the hypothetical 20, or 30%. Some teams made wholesale changes: in Mario Lemieux's second season, he had 11 new friends on the Penguins roster. ROOKIES: The median is 2 on the 20 man roster. A few like Lidstrom, Malkin (the Pens did not improve by a single point in Crosby's rookie year) were major contributors, but mostly these teams used rookies as supporting cast. GOALIES: The median is 1: there were a few cases where a number one goalie made a major contribution but most of the goalies added were either backups or junior partners in a shared goaltending arrangement. CONCLUSIONS: Anecdotally, many of these teams had made significant changes the year before their big improvement. So if the Chicago Blackhawks add some more defense this year, look out for them. Alternatively, what was Wayne Gretzky Thinking (he was thinking about Kurt Sauer?) by trading away two solid defensemen?

Draft positon and success

2008-06-22T06:34:00.000-07:00

Using 200 NHL games as a standard, 90% of defensemen taken among the top ten picks, have achieved that goal, 65% of those taken in picks 11-20, 59% of those taken in picks 21-30. The most successful drafts in terms of d-men were 1979 (13 of 14) and 1998 (10 of 11).

D-MEN TAKE LONGER...BUT NOT MUCH LONGER

2008-06-20T14:26:00.000-07:00

The median age at which the 80 defensemen currently in the NHL who were first round picks played at least half of their team's games: 20.5 years. The median for 85 centers picked in the first round: 20 years. Forty-three or 51% of the centers had played at least 41 games by age 19: by contrast,twenty-two or 28% of the defensemen had achieved this by the age of 19.It's a difference but not that significant when you consider that forwards can break in by playing 4th and 3rd line minutes (think Bryan Little, Martin Hanzal) and top flight defensemen rarely do that.
Measuring the quality defensive play is difficult statistically but I looked at offensive contributions and found that of the 38 defensemen who were picked on the first round and who showed offensive promise, the median age at which they first achieved their career average PPG was 22 years.

Drafting D-Men in the 1st Round: The Big Picture

2008-05-28T08:04:00.000-07:00

Everything points to a bumper crop of defensemen being selected in the first round of June's NHL 2008 Entry Draft. Central Scouting has 15 d-men among its' top 30 North American skaters and 13 among its' top 30 European skaters. If the actual draft follows form, the first round should surpass the record 13 d-men selected in the first round of the 1996 draft. Unfortunately that 1996 draft was also the worst in history for defensemen, with only 6 of the 13 first rounders having played 200 NHL games to date. Prime failures include Jeff Brown (not Downtown Jeff Brown or Jeff Brown, the author of the Flat Stanley books, although he might have been a better pick),Mario Larocque, and Matthieu Descoteaux. These three played a total of 10 NHL games between them.

Surprisingly, drafting d-men on the 1st round has been a successful strategy .
A review of drafts from 1979 (the first year of the "Entry Draft") through 2002 shows that of 190 defensemen drafted on the first round, 140 or 73% have played at least 200 NHL games to date. 37 have played in at least one All-Star game. By comparison, 65% of forwards drafted on the first round have played at least 200 games. Considering that defensemen are competing for half as many open positions on a standard NHL roster, this difference is significant. It's also surprising given that there is general agreement that defensemen take longer to develop and because of the greater emphasis on offense in junior hockey.
Looking at the composition of today's NHL, 80 of the top 220 defensemen (in TOI) in 2007-8 were picked on the first round. The remaining 140 players came from a more or less normal distribution of the remaining draft rounds and free agents. To summarize, this research shows that the talents and skills that make for an NHL caliber defenseman are being accurately identified and ranked by draft order.