All Time Olympic Scoring leaders

NHL Players in the Olympics, By Year and Team

Is there an Olympic hangover?

Moving Up in the Draft

Are you baffled by some of the trades GMS make on draft day? I am, so here's a stab at trying to understand what's going on.
The way I see it trades involving draft picks only have two components. The first is economic, a cost in Optimal or Probable salary savings (OPS and PPS). The second is an exchange of probabilities. The chart below lists some of the trades that took place on Draft Day in 2008 and 2007. Most are two for one exchanges in which the team in Column 1 acquired the right to move up x positions in the draft (column 3 in the chart). Column 4 "Probability Cost 1" shows the % of probability the team gave up. It's the difference between the probability of the pick acquired and the probability that one of the picks surrendered will make it to the NHL. Column 5 "Probability Cost 2" shows the probability that 2 of those surrendered will make it: there is such a miniscule probability that 3 will make (some trades were 3 for 1) that it doesn't deserve its' own column. Some observations after the grid:



1. What the hey, there is some consistency here, at least if you throw out Doug Wilson's snaky, unpredictable transactions. For moving up an average 3.3 draft positions on Round 1, GMs paid 9% probability cost and $707k in PPS. If I'm a GM at Friday's draft, that's my minimum price. 2. Doug Wilson loves this shit. Or else he caught the bug from Dean Lombardi who used to occupy his chair. And he's pretty good at it: Devin Setoguchi, Joe Pavelski, Matt Carle, Steve Bernier, Lukas Kaspar, Thomas Greiss are all players acquired by moving up or down who have played at least one game for the Sharks since 2003.

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The Race to the Bottom

Most Meaningful Meaningless Game of the Week:
No minus four point games but the Avs get to resume their Death March with 2 games versus the Ducks and 1 with the Canucks

European Ice Hockey Attendance

Four Point Games and the Playoff Race

Here's a list of "four point" games among the conference rivals vying for playoff spots. The list excludes conference games against the top three teams in each conference and Chicago in the Western Conference. This list will be updated with records in four point games from Mar 5 on.

Pittsburgh (Home=1 Away=3 W-2 L-1), Florida (Home=1 Away=3 W-0 L-2 Otl-2), New York (Home=2 Away=3 W-3 L-2),Carolina (Home=3 W-2 L-0), Buffalo (Home=1 Away=2 W-1 L-3), Philadelphia (Home=3 Away=1 W-4 L-1), Montreal (Home=4 Away=2 Otl-1), Columbus (Home=3 Away=3 W-0 L-1), Nashville(Home=1 Away=2 W-1 L-0 Otl-1), Dallas (Home=3 Away=2 W-2 L-2), Anaheim (Home=1Away=3 W-2 L-2), Minnesota (Home=1 Away=1 W-2 L-1 Otl-1), St Louis (Home=3 Away=2 W-2 L-1 Otl-1), Vancouver (Home=1 Away=4 W-2 Otl-1) Edmonton (H=3 A-1 W=1 L+1)

Schedule of 4 Point Games for March
March 24 Anaheim at Nashville, Vancouver at Dallas March 25 Florida at Buffalo March 26 Florida at Philadelphia, Vancouver at St. Louis March 27 Edmonton at Anaheim March 28 NY Rangers at Pittsburgh, Buffalo at Montreal, Columbus at St. Louis, March 29 St. Louis at Columbus, Minnesota at Edmonton March 31 Nashville at Columbus, Vancouver at Minnesota, Anaheim at Edmonton

THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM

Weekend Results: Revolt of the Downtrodden and the Bolts take over 29th Place

The Islanders picked up four points, beating the Devils and Phoenix Coyotes. Tampa Bay moved squarely into the race with a miserable outing against Carolina. The Thrashers had two home wins against Canadian teams to fall (climb) to 28th.

Most Meaningful Meaningless GameThis Week: Atl @ Col March 10
What's At Stake: The team finishing 30th( last) receives a 48.2 % chance to obtain the first draft pick in the NHL Entry Draft and a 100% chance of picking second if they fail to pick first. The 29th place finisher has an 18.8% chance of picking first and a 42% chance of picking second. The 28th place finisher receives only a 14.4% chance of drafting first. Given that the list of top prospects has been dominated by the two-headed monster Tavares/Hedman for more than a year, obtaining one of the top two picks has taken on added significance this year (has anybody ever heard of Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi, ranked third by the ISS?). Also at stake is the mythical (because, frankly, it doesn't exist) Kansas City Scouts Memorial Trophy*, named after the franchise with the worst winning percentage in NHL history.
* This trophy was formerly named the "Top of the Bottom Trophy". The name was changed by the NHL because Gary Bettman was squeamish about discussing the anatomical significance of the trophy's name with his young daughter.
Tavares/Hedman Watch:John Tavares scored a hat trick on Sunday to become the OHL's all-time leading scorer with 215 goals. Victor Hedman's season is over as Modo failed to qualify for the playoffs. But Hedman is already garnering post-season honors with one Swedish publication saying he was an "easy choice" for Rookie of the Year and predicting an imminent departure for the NHL.
The Little Three
Atlanta Thrashers: Kari Lehtonen awoke from a recurring trade deadline nightmare which featured Al Strachan screaming "Lehtonen to the Flyers" over and over. Relieved of the possible pressure to perform up to expectations for a playoff contender, Kari turned in two outstanding efforts. Time to start Johan Hedburg. To make matters worse (better) the Thrashers defense showed signs of improvement despite trading Nic Havelid. Will Don Waddell regret winning 3 of the 4 meetings with the Isles earlier in the season?

New York Islanders: Despite the good (bad) news about a possible season ending injury to Trent Hunter, the Isles third leading scorer, and the trade of Bill Guerin, the Isles showed signs of awakening from their slumber and have been 5-4-1 in the last 10 games. A six game road trip starting this week should fix that.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Traded "Wrecking Ball" Mark Recchi, their best defenseman Steve Emiger, and spiritual advisor Olaf Kolzig. Combine that with Mike Smith's walkabout and the results were the worst record in the NHL over the last ten games. The Bolts control their own ill-fate with games remaining with the NYI and Thrashers(2). I have a hunch that Mike McKenna will start those games.

What's Walt Worth? (Part III)

(Keith "Walt" Tkachuk has been traded twice at or around the trade deadline, once as rental player, and may be on the trade block once again this year. "Walt" has become a kind of a poster boy for deadline deals : this series of posts has been named in his honor. )

UFA Defensemen Projected Market Value

Kuba, OTT HIGH 1st Round DC LOW 2nd + 4th Round DCs
Havelid, ATL, O'Donnell, LA HIGH 2nd + 4th Round DCs LOW Roster Player
Zanon, NSH HIGH Roster Player LOW 3rd Round DC
Malik, TB HIGH 3rd Round DC LOW 4th Round DC
Gauthier, LA, Kostinen, NSH HIGH 4th Round DC LOW 5th Round DC

Mathieu Schneider is a wild card among this group. Based on his reputation and skill-set (at least the skills he used to have), he should have a market value similar to that of Brad Stuart last year: two DCs, 2nd and 4th. But his play this year has been truly horrible and he could fall to a 3rd or 4th round pick. Jay Bouwmeester is not on the list because I don't expect him to be moved: if that happens, he should command a Brian Campbell-like market value, a roster player and first round DC.

What's Walt Worth? (Part II)

(Keith "Walt" Tkachuk has been traded twice at or around the trade deadline, once as rental player, and may be on the trade block once again this year. "Walt" has become a kind of a poster boy for deadline deals : this series of posts has been named in his honor. )

UFA Forwards Projected Market Value
Antropov,TOR., Tkachuk, STL High Roster Player,DC(1st rd) Low Roster Player, Prospect

Weight,NYI, Moore, TOR High Roster Player, DC (2nd rd) Low Prospect, DC (2nd rd)

Recchi, TB,Comrie,NYI, Reasoner, ATL High Prospect, DC (2nd rd) Low Roster Player

Neil, OTT,Bonk,NSH High Roster Player Low DC(2nd rd)

Calder, LA, Perrin, ATL High Roster Player Low DC(2nd rd)

Fiddler, NSH, McAmmond, OTT High DC (2nd rd) Low DC(4th rd)

Hinote, STL, Jackman NYI High DC (4th rd) Low DC (6th rd)

Andy McDonald is not on the list because of injury problems. If he recovers before March 4 and shows signs of regaining his past form, he would go to the top of the list. Steve Sullivan is also not included: he's only scored two points since returning from a long term injury and it seems to me that Nashville would get little for him except a heap of bad publicity.

What's Walt Worth?

(Keith "Walt" Tkachuk has been traded twice at or around the trade deadline, once as rental player, and may be on the trade block once again this year. "Walt" has become a kind of a poster boy for deadline deals : this series of posts has been named in his honor. )

This summary includes trades where the rental player was the only player acquired (72% of total trades): multiplayer trades have several moving parts and I'll try to untangle those trades at a later date.

TOI “Rental” Players 2006-8 Defensemen

6-10 min 3 trades Prospect (4th rd) + DC (7th rd)/ DC (4th rd)/ DC (7th rd)
11-15 min 5 trades DC (4th rd)/DC (4th rd)/DC(5th rd)/Prospect (2nd rd)/Roster player (F)
16-20 min 5 trades DC(2nd rd)/DC (3rd rd)/Roster player (F)/Two Roster players (F (F+D)/DC (3rd rd)
21-24 min 7 trades Roster player( F) + DC (1st rd)/Two DC (2nd, 4th rd)/Roster player(F)/ DC (2nd, 4th rd)/DC (1st rd)/Roster player( F) + DC (1st rd)/Gorges, DC(1st rd)

TOI “Rental” Players 2006-8 Forwards
7-12 min 7 trades DC(2nd rd)/DC (4th rd)/Roster player (F)/DC (5th rd)/Roster player(F)/DC (6th rd)/DC (6th rd)
13-16 min 8 trades DC (3rd rd)/Prospect (2nd rd)/DC (2nd rd)/DC (7th rd)/Prospect (7th rd),DC(2nd rd)/Prospect (2nd rd),DC (2nd rd)/Roster Player (F), Prospect (8th rd),DC(2nd rd)/Roster Player (F)
17-19 min 5 trades Roster Player (F), Prospect (1st rd), DC(2nd rd)/Roster Player (F-UFA), DC (1st,2nd,3rd rd)/Roster Player (F), Prospect (2nd rd), DC (1st rd)/DC (2nd rd)/Roster Player (F)
20-22 min 2 trades Smyth was traded for Roster Player( Nilsson ), Prospect(O'Marra), DC (1st rd)/Forsberg was traded for Roster Player (Upshall), Prospect (Parent), DC (1st, 3rd rd)

Goalies: Huet for DC (2nd rd),Roloson for DC(1st,3rd rd), Aebischer was traded for Theodore (then on IR), Aubin for DC (7th rd).

DEADLINE DAY OR GROUNDHOG DAY?

The NHL trade deadline is a month away but for Mathieu Schneider, Keith Tkachuk, and Doug Weight, Deadline Day may feel a lot like Groundhog Day (the Bill Murray film). All of these players have been traded at least once before on Deadline Day and all of them have been prominently mentioned on lists of potential "rental players" likely to be traded on March 4.

Since 2005 and the new CBA, rental players have swelled the ranks of players traded on Deadline Day: in the past three seasons, 65 players (37 forwards, 23 defensemen, 5 goalies) classified as rental players have been traded on or near the trade deadline. Compare with this with a total of 28 rental players changing hands in the three seasons prior to the new CBA. And the vast majority of these players have ended up being purely "rentals" since only 10 of the 65 have later signed with the acquiring team,

As Schneider, Weight, and Tkachuk and about fifteen to twenty others (usually well-traveled veteran players) contemplate a month or more of living out of suitcases in a strange city, fans of the acquiring teams will be asking whether their team's new acquisition will help solidify an established playoff position or spark a playoff push.

The answer, based on recent history, is a qualified yes: out of 33 team seasons in the last three years, teams acquiring rental players succeeded in making the playoffs 30 times. Of course, almost every contending team makes some sort of deal around Deadline Day, some rental players have little or no impact on the fortunes of the acquiring team,and there's even some evidence that rental players underperform statistically (see below). Still, it's striking that out of 68 teams (over the past three years) that were at least nominally in contention (within 6 points of a playoff spot) on Deadline Day, only 15 of the 35 that did not acquire rental players actually made the playoffs. It may be that teams acquiring rental players are simply better positioned in the playoff race and therefore optimistic enough to trade some part of their future for a short term gain.

18 of the 33 teams acquiring rental players actually improved their winning percentage after a Deadline Day acquisition, a number that is made more impressive by the fact that most of these teams were already winning consistently prior to the trade deadline.

13 of the 33 teams improved their playoff position after acquiring a rental player, 3 of these teams were not in the top 8 in their conference at the trade deadline. 9 teams slipped with 3 acquiring teams falling out of the playoff race.

Of course,there is an "on the other hand": 15 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs survived the first round, no more and no less than would be expected.

After any big purchase, buyer's remorse may set in and fans of acquiring teams may wonder if they gave up too much of the team's future for a short term rental. A total of 49 players changed hands in transactions for rental players: 29 of those players have played in the NHL this season.

46 draft choices changed hands: the jury is still out on most of them, of course, but Milan Lucic, David Perron, Colton Gillies, Wayne Simmonds, Patrick Berglund, and Mikael Backlund were among the players selected by teams involved in trading rental players.

Statistics on how well the rental players performed for their new teams are underwhelming. Keep in mind, though, its a small sample (less than 25% of a full season), there are likely to be issues of adjustment to a new team and system, and players often saw their roles change on their new team.

Forwards PPG 35% increased +/- 62% increased TOI 38% increased
Defensemen PPG 26% increased +/- 52% increased TOI 57% increased

Among the goaltenders traded as rental players, the two starting goalies (Roloson, Huet) made major contributions and saw their statistics improve dramatically. The other three goalies saw little action.